Tropical Storms

I know that several folks (myself included) were breathing a sigh of relief and discounting Fay as just a Tropical Storm.

Maybe we get to upgrade her to "just a cat 1 with a wacky path".  The 11pm update has her actually strengthening over the peninsula, and a forecasted re-landfall as a Cat 1 hurricane near St. Augustine.

I’ve seen some really wacky storm paths simulated in the cat models…and well maybe they aren’t as truly bizarre as I once thought they were.

Usually you see storms impacting just part of Florida…but sheesh, it looks like Fay has something against the state.

Mercifully she isn’t forecast to go above Cat 1.  If a Cat 3 or more storm were dancing this way across the state, could you imagine the assessments needed to cover the damages on state-subsidized wind cover?

Seen in the Orlando Sentinel:

Gov. Charlie Crist and the Florida Cabinet had told the state’s risk managers to find potential buyers for as much as $11 billion in bonds that would be needed to pay claims if the state is racked by a Katrina-sized hurricane.  But with financial markets in tatters, state money managers say they’ve struck out.

"The terms that we are getting are just outrageously expensive," said Jack Nicholson, director of the state’s hurricane catastrophe fund.

Translation: The state now will hope for the best.

[If a massive storm were to strike Tampa or Miami] Florida would have to sell bonds to help insurers pay claims. But with about $8 billion in cash and the expectation the state could sell a maximum of $10 billion in bonds, officials fear a possible $11 billion shortfall.

Mother Nature has responded via the National Hurricane Center thusly:

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS A WEAK SURFACE LOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

I know.  It’s not that impressive a tropical outlook…but it’s somewhat ironic that the first hiccup in the Atlantic in about a month would come just as Florida decides to cross its fingers again this year.

You know, if the insurance industry had an effective, clueful industry PR engine, this blurb from Insurance Journal would be receiving a lot of media play right about now (well, except for that primary thingy taking place in New Hampshire):

No complaints have been received by the Texas Department of Insurance (TDI) on how the insurance industry handled any of the estimated 5,000 auto, homeowner and commercial claims that resulted from Hurricane Humberto, the Insurance Council of Texas (ICT) reported. Humberto struck High Island, Texas on Sept. 13, 2007, with 85 mph winds.

An active industry PR staff would tout this as signs of the industry having retooled in the wake of consumer complaints post Katrina/Rita/Wilma.   A more cynical person would note that Humberto wasn’t exactly the mega-disaster that Katrina and Wilma were…or that Humberto didn’t hit one of the more infamously litigious parts of the country.

Still, any positive news is welcome for the industry.

The question is — has the sun not quite set on storm season ‘07, or is storm season ‘08 getting off to a very early start?

From the National Hurricane Center:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST DAY OR
SO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT COULD BECOME
A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

As expected, we’re not quite done with tropical storm season 2007….

Just when folks were thinking 2007 was done, word comes that Olga might be on the way. From the National Hurricane Center:

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO…IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS…MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH IN THIS AREA TO
SUPPORT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION…AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
ESPECIALLY PROHIBITIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS…AND INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS…THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS…PUERTO RICO…HISPANIOLA…AND THE EASTERN BAHAMAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

I don’t know whether it was because of all the mortgage hype this week or because hurricane season 2007 turned out to be uneventful in the States, but the folks at Colorado State have once again hit [F9] to prod the random number generators into action, to produce an early guesstimate about storm season ‘08. Their picks:

• 13 named storms (average is 9.6)
• 7 hurricanes (average is 5.9)
• 3 intense hurricanes (average is 2.3)
• 60% chance of cat 3+ making landfall on the U.S. coast (average is 52%)

In fairness to the folks at Colorado State, they do spend a portion of their report reminding readers that there are significant uncertainties involved. Long-long-term weather forecasting is still in its infancy, and variability is huge. Gray and Klotzbach are primarily in the business of identifying correlations between weather patterns at certain times of the year with the tropical storm activity in the following year, and this report is how they opine on them.