I’ve observed on this blog previously that I have a fascination with complex relationships with systems. It’s one of the things that attract me to my little niche of the actuarial world, where I enjoy poring through piles of data to spot odd correlations upon which my businesses can profit.
Sometimes my love of patterns and correlations takes on a bit of a macabre tone. For example, consider this New York Times article:
Drought has already spurred significant changes in Australia’s agricultural heartland. Some farmers are abandoning rice, which requires large amounts of water, to plant less water-intensive crops like wheat or, especially here in southeastern Australia, wine grapes. Other rice farmers have sold fields or water rights, usually to grape growers.[...]
The global agricultural crisis is threatening to become political, pitting the United States and other developed countries against the developing world over the need for affordable food versus the need for renewable energy. Many poorer nations worry that subsidies from rich countries to support biofuels, which turn food, like corn, into fuel, are pushing up the price of staples. The World Bank and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization called on major agricultural nations to overhaul policies to avoid a social explosion from rising food prices.
With rice, which is not used to make biofuel, the problem is availability. Even in normal times, little of the world’s rice is actually exported — more than 90 percent is consumed in the countries where it is grown. In the last quarter-century, rice consumption has outpaced production, with global reserves plunging by half just since 2000. A plant disease is currently hurting harvests in Vietnam, reducing supply. And economic uncertainty has led producers to hoard rice and speculators and investors to see it as a lucrative or at least safe bet.[...]
Senegal and Haiti each import four-fifths of their rice. And both have faced mounting unrest as prices have increased. Police suppressed violent demonstrations in Dakar on March 30, and unrest has spread to other rice-dependent nations in West Africa, notably Ivory Coast. The Haitian president, René Préval, after a week of riots, announced subsidies for rice buyers on Saturday.
I’ve written previously about my idea of a more coordinated semi-mandatory investment in new energy infrastructure. However, the unintended consequences of speculation in the energy market, as well as the potential fallout from shifts in agricultural markets if/as climate change manifests, have me wondering if maybe some of that potential R&D shouldn’t also go towards investments in promoting domestic/local food production… or finding sustainable alternatives, at least… in those locales where importation of food may become / is becoming problematic.
