Polls

As you might expect, less than a week from super-duper-duper Tuesday, there are a flood of polls being released.   The ones that most interest me are (because of geography) those showing how things stand in Connecticut.

Rasmussen released the following numbers on the GOP side:

• McCain 42%
• Romney 26%
• Giuliani 12% (pre-withdrawal, obviously)
• Huckabee 8%
• Paul 4%

Since Connecticut is a winner-take-all state, those polling numbers perhaps indicate why nary a GOP candidate’s ad can be seen on local media, and why there are no reports of Romney visiting the state.

(Yes, I’m still planning to throw away my vote on Ron Paul, although “uncommitted” looks like an equally attractive option.)

Over on the Democratic race, Rasmussen’s Connecticut numbers are far more entertaining:

• Hillary 40%
• Obama 40%
• Edwards 11% (pre-withdrawal)

That’s much closer than the wide Hillary lead that the Courant suggested about a week and a half ago….and it correlates rather nicely with why you can’t turn on a local TV station without seeing either an Obama or Hillary ad, or why our mailbox is becoming stuffed with mailed political fliers all addressed to my wife (registered D, voting against Hillary).

Well, we’ve seen polls showing how potential presidential candidate match-ups fare in terms of potential popular vote. However, I hadn’t seen projections of how those potential matchups might translate into electoral votes…until today.

Electoral-vote.com is apparently starting to run such numbers. On their site today:

• Hillary Clinton 251 EV’s
• John McCain 287 EV’s

The Courant is reporting the results of the first poll I’ve seen since primary season started of how Nutmegger voters are leaning for our Super Tuesday primary.

Among Dems:

• Hillary: 41%
• Obama: 27%
• Undecided: 21%
• Edwards: 9%
• Gravel: 0%
• Kucinich: 0%

Among the GOP:

• McCain: 39%
• Undecided: 17%
• Giuliani: 16%
• Romney: 11%
• Huckabee: 8%
• Thompson: 6%
• Ron Paul: 2%

So, among Dems there doesn’t seem to be much change from the last poll I saw for CT. Over on the GOP side, however, it seems that momentum has clearly shifted from CT being a runaway state for Giuliani to being a runaway state for McCain.

While Real Clear Politics seems to be the preferred source of summary polling data for online pundits, I’ll take this opportunity to note that Electoral-Vote.com seems to be dusting off its site, and is providing a map to summarize the latest polls.

Well, we’re only eleven-and-a-half months away from the 2008 elections, and as we’ve come to expect, the political news and blogs are becoming awash in polling numbers.

Via Donklephant, I came across a Rasmussen poll notable because of it’s inclusion of potential third-party candidates:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found Hillary Clinton leading Rudy Giuliani by three percentage points in a four-way race that includes Ron Paul running as a Libertarian candidate and Ralph Nader representing the Green Party. The poll shows Clinton earning 42% of the vote while Giuliani attracts 39%. Ron Paul is the choice for 8%, Ralph Nader is preferred by 4% and 7% are not sure[...].

A recent Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that comedian Stephen Colbert attracted 13% support as a third-party candidate.

I’d be interested on what the polling would indicate if Bloomberg were thrown into the mix. (I realize that he’s been pretty adamant about not running, but still it would be interesting to see the numbers.)

And, the idea of Colbert potentially being a kingmaker or a spoiler in a Presidential campaign both amuses and disturbs me greatly. Perhaps Colbert loyalists could be convinced to get Colbert cleared at least as a legitimate write-in candidate in a few states, just to add to the expected circus atmosphere of the political arena next year?