Nevada

In my two visits to Las Vegas, I have been somewhat disturbed by the excesses of The Strip, including just how much water is wasted in the Nevada desert.

Maybe the days of such excess are numbered.

From Reuters:

The study by two researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego calculates a 10 percent chance that Lake Mead will run dry in six years and a 50 percent probability it will be gone by 2021 absent other changes.[...]

The uncertainty about when and if the lake will run dry stems from the natural fluctuations of the Colorado River, which feeds the lake, the researcher said. In recent months the flow has been above average, he said, after years below average.

I wonder if Las Vegas will begin to race Los Angeles, to see which metro area can tap Lake Tahoe first.

Seen in the New York Times:

The lawsuit argues that the Nevada Democratic Party’s decision, decided late last year, to create at-large precincts inside nine Las Vegas resorts on caucus day violates the state’s election laws and creates a system in which voters at the at-large precincts can elect more delegates than voters at other precincts. The lawsuit employs a complex mathematical formula to show that voters at the other 1,754 precincts would have less influence with their votes.

The at-large precincts are being established because thousands of hotel workers cannot leave work to participate in the midday caucuses in their home precincts. The Nevada State Education Association has said it would not endorse any Democrat, but some of its top officials have endorsed Mrs. Clinton. The association’s deputy executive director, Debbie Cahill, for instance, was a founding member of Senator Clinton’s Nevada Women’s Leadership Council.

Naturally, there seems to be a bit of speculation taking place that this is an elevation of the Hillary v. Obama contest, since Obama has been disinclined to bow to the alleged inevitability of Hillary’s nomination and return of the Clinton dynasty.

A few thoughts of my own:

• If primaries and caucuses are the domains of political parties, then it would seem clear to me that the parties get to make the rules. If primaries and caucuses are just extensions of our larger system (and the parties are defacto government institutions), then I think a case could be made that the at-large precincts ought to be replaced with absentee balloting. This is yet another reason why I think partisan primaries shouldn’t be straddling the line between “private” and “public” functions.
   
• The decision was made months ago, and the caucuses are next weekend. Isn’t it a bit late to be bringing the suit? (Surely, it’s just coincidental that the folks suing have noticed that the candidate they support isn’t doing as well in the polls as had been expected.
   
• I could buy an argument of “it’s not fair that casino workers get special consideration, but teachers don’t” if the caucus were being held on a weekday, during the day. However, the caucus is being held mid-day on a Saturday, not exactly a time when you’d expect many teachers to be on the job. In fact, I can’t think of any other group of workers (at least not in Nevada) that you’d expect to be on duty en masse with enough potential caucus goers working so as to require similar accommodation.

Well, my wished-for moratorium on polling data releases isn’t in effect, so in case you’re wondering (as I was) what the polls show for the next states, here’s what I see in Real Clear Politics averages:

GOP Michigan (primary date 15 January, polling data 30 November through 19 December):

• Romney: 19.8%
• Huckabee: 18.8%
• McCain: 13.0%
• Giuliani: 12.5%
• Thompson: 6.5%
• Paul: 4.3%

Dems Michigan (15 January, delegates stripped, candidates boycotting, Obama not even on ballot)

GOP Nevada (19 January, polling data 16 November through 6 December):

• Giuliani: 23.7%
• Romney: 23.7%
• Huckabee: 15.3%
• Thompson: 9.7%
• McCain: 7.3%
• Paul: 5.0%

Dems Nevada (19 January, polling data 16 November through 6 December):

• Clinton: 41.3%
• Obama: 21.3%
• Edwards: 11.7%
• Richardson: 5.7%

GOP South Carolina (19 January, polling data 4 January through 7 January):

• Huckabee: 32.3%
• McCain: 19.7%
• Romney: 16.0%
• Thompson: 9.0%
• Giuliani: 9.0%
• Paul: 5.0%

Dems South Carolina (26 January, polling data 4 January through 7 January):

• Obama: 44.0%
• Clinton: 31.0%
• Edwards: 15.0%

GOP Florida (29 January, polling data 12 December through 7 January):

• Giuliani: 26.5%
• Huckabee: 21.3%
• Romney: 16.5%
• McCain: 14.3%
• Thompson: 8.5%
• Paul: 3.7%

Dems Florida (29 January, polling data 12 December through 7 January; delegates stripped, candidates boycotting):

• Clinton: 46.0%
• Obama: 26.3%
• Edwards 13.3%

Of course, we saw last night just how meaningful polling data can be. 

Seriously, I’m disappointed by how stale some of those numbers are.  If you make some guesses of how Iowa and New Hampshire might influence some of the older results… well, January is shaping up to be potentially mighty interesting.

So, does anyone else remember the Corps of Engineers expressing concern about many levees countrywide?

Seen at MSNBC:

An irrigation canal’s earthen levee ruptured after heavy rains early Saturday, flooding hundreds of homes and forcing the rescue of dozens of people in helicopters and boats across about a square mile of their high desert town 30 miles east of Reno. “We had a 50-foot wall of water about 2 feet high going down Farm District Road,” said Lyon County Fire Chief Scott Huntley, one of the first on the scene after a section of the Truckee Canal up to 150 feet long broke just after 4 a.m.

“In some places folks had to deal with 8 feet of water,” he said. “Firefighters were in chest-deep water making rescues.”