Tropical Storms

I know; I really shouldn’t be so irreverent as to refer to seasonal hurricane forecasts as “random number generators”. However, given the wide range of variability that exists with the forecasts and their accuracy, I can’t resist.

Seen in Insurance Journal:

The final months of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season are expected to experience above-average activity, forecasters at Colorado State University in Ft. Collins, Colo., are predicting.

According to its latest forecast, the two-month period of October-November is expected to experience a total of four named storms. The CSU team had predicted five named storms with their earlier October-November predictions, but they downgraded the forecast slightly to four named storms with two becoming hurricanes with their latest update.

The article points to the emergence of a La Niña pattern as suppressing wind shear, making it easier for tropical weather systems in the Atlantic to hold together and blossom into storms.

I’ll still keep my fingers crossed that it remains a relatively quiet year on the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts, however.

Wow.  It’s not every day you see two Atlantic Tropical Depressions being designated at the same time.

Say hello to TD 8 and TD 9, neither of which appears to be the mother-of-all-storms that the media seems to be craving.  The biggest question right now would seem to be which one will be named “Humberto” and which will be “Ingrid”.

While I was away, I wrote about some weather we encountered at sea.

That weather has a name. It’s Subtropical Storm Gabrielle, which now seems likely to make things on the Outer Banks a bit breezy and damp this weekend.

Not a big storm, but it’s nice to see that a fun part of my vacation finally got a name.

There’s nothing like trying to catch up with the world, before the cruise ship sails out of San Juan’s cellular broadband range, only to notice that Tropical Depression 6 (probably soon to be Felix) has formed.

At least it’s currently forecast to not impact any of our scheduled port calls.

Looks like it might be a little breezy in the Rio Grande Valley this weekend:

From the National Hurricane Center:

Let’s see…it usually takes a good 7-10 days or so for the Caribbean and Gulf to recover from storm disruption enough to really support another storm. So, we’re still on track for an interaction of the jinxed lives my wife and I lead, and our planned cruise in a couple of weeks to lead to an unfortunate weather situation.

Seen at Dr. Jeff Master’s blog on Weather Underground:

NOAA released their August Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update today. The forecast calls for a likely range of 13-16 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. The forecast is almost unchanged from their May 22 forecast of 13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes (a normal season has 10-11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes).

Dr. Masters notes that given the lateness of the season and the lack of activity so far (we’re only at “C”), this would imply a very active peak-and-late season coming up.

Of course, with my wife and I taking a Labor Day vacation on a cruise to the Caribbean, and knowing our luck…I could have told you that.

The wire service carries a story on the most recent output of the random-number generator at Colorado State:

Eight hurricanes are likely to form in the Atlantic this year, with four expected to reach intense strength, experts said Friday in a downward revision of earlier forecasts.[...]

Eight of the tropical storms will strengthen into hurricanes, of which four will be intense, meaning they will pack sustained winds of at least 178 kilometers (111 miles) per hour, the forecasters said in a report.

In late May the team had predicted 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five intense hurricanes.[...]

“Sea surface temperature anomalies have cooled across the tropical Atlantic in recent weeks, and there have been several significant dust outbreaks from Africa, signifying a generally stable air mass over the tropical Atlantic,” [Klotzbach] said.

This week is turning into another week from hell, but I thought I’d pop up from my chaos to mention that the National Hurricane Center has declared TD3 about a third of the way from Bermuda to Cape Cod.

There’s an expectation that TD3 will briefly hit tropical storm strength (becoming “Chantal”) before going extratropical as it heads for Europe.

Just a reminder folks - my wife and I are supposed to be on a cruise to the Caribbean in a few weeks. Given how our luck runs, I’d expect to see the Atlantic storm season start to heat up in the near future.

Via the Washington Post:

“It has been a very difficult time for everyone,” said Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman and meteorologist at the center. “The staff is ready to move forward. We are building very quickly to the height of the season.”

In January, Proenza took on the role of the nation’s chief hurricane forecaster, the bully pulpit of meteorology. He quickly created controversy by criticizing NOAA spending priorities, arguing that more money should be spent for hurricane detection.

He targeted, among other things, the agency’s anniversary celebration, for which he said the agency would spend $4 million.

The article also mentions that a nontrivial portion of the staff were concerned that the extent to which Proenza was arguing to replace the aging QuickSCAT satellite was stressing out the staff and raising concerns about the credibility of their forecasting…not to mention perhaps being overenthusiastic in stressing the importance of the satellite.

It’s a shame to see those folks’ dirty laundry being aired in public.   I’ve got to respect Proenza for daring to ring the bell, presumably seeking to do whatever it takes to get his staff what it desired, when so much of the current administration seems to be lost in its own little never-never land.  

I’ve also got to respect the staff if what they did really was ask for ending a distraction, so they could focus on their jobs during this hurricane season.