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	<title>Musings of MikeTheActuary &#187; Actuarial Musings</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.triskele.com/category/actuarial-musings/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.triskele.com</link>
	<description>Political &#38; actuarial musings and assorted roadgeek trivia</description>
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		<title>Time to Tap the Social Security Trust Fund</title>
		<link>http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/14/time-to-tap-the-social-security-trust-fund</link>
		<comments>http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/14/time-to-tap-the-social-security-trust-fund#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Mar 2010 01:12:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>MikeTheActuary</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Social Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deficit]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/14/time-to-tap-the-social-security-trust-fund</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
<p>Happy news on the newswire:</p>
<p>For more than two decades, Social Security collected more money in payroll taxes than it paid out in benefits — billions more each year.</p>
<p>Not anymore. This year, for the first time since the 1980s, when Congress last overhauled Social Security, the retirement program is projected to pay out more in benefits [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a href="http://www.triskele.com/category/actuarial-musings/social-security" title="Social Security"><img src="http://www.triskele.com/wp-content/images/icons/topic_social-security.gif" style="float:right;" width="100" height="100" alt="Social Security" /></a>
<p>Happy news on <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jWbISwIapd30hnID5R3gGD7VFZ3QD9EED7CO0">the newswire</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>For more than two decades, Social Security collected more money in payroll taxes than it paid out in benefits — billions more each year.</p>
<p>Not anymore. This year, for the first time since the 1980s, when Congress last overhauled Social Security, the retirement program is projected to pay out more in benefits than it collects in taxes — nearly $29 billion more.</p>
<p>Sounds like a good time to start tapping the nest egg. Too bad the federal government already spent that money over the years on other programs, preferring to borrow from Social Security rather than foreign creditors. In return, the Treasury Department issued a stack of IOUs — in the form of Treasury bonds — which are kept in a nondescript office building just down the street from Parkersburg&#8217;s municipal offices.</p>
<p>Now the government will have to borrow even more money, much of it abroad, to start paying back the IOUs, and the timing couldn&#8217;t be worse. The government is projected to post a record $1.5 trillion budget deficit this year, followed by trillion dollar deficits for years to come.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Just a reminder, since popular politics seems to have forgotten – Social Security as it is currently structured is fiscally unsustainable.&#160; And, while borrowing against the trust fund may have seemed like a good idea when it was first done, given the coming draw down and the feds’ love of spending money…that light up ahead is an oncoming reality train rather than the end of the tunnel.</p>
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		<title>Who Says There Aren&#8217;t Ways to Make Government More Efficient?</title>
		<link>http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/14/who-says-there-arent-ways-to-make-government-more-efficient</link>
		<comments>http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/14/who-says-there-arent-ways-to-make-government-more-efficient#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Mar 2010 00:10:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>MikeTheActuary</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Taxes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IRS]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/14/who-says-there-arent-ways-to-make-government-more-efficient</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
<p>Seen in the Sacramento Bee:</p>
<p>Arriving at Harv&#8217;s Metro Car Wash in midtown Wednesday afternoon were two dark-suited IRS agents demanding payment of delinquent taxes. &#34;They were deadly serious, very aggressive, very condescending,&#34; says Harv&#8217;s owner, Aaron Zeff.</p>
<p>The really odd part of this: The letter that was hand-delivered to Zeff&#8217;s on-site manager showed the amount of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a href="http://www.triskele.com/category/actuarial-musings/politics/taxes" title="Taxes"><img src="http://www.triskele.com/wp-content/images/icons/topic_taxes.gif" style="float:right;" width="100" height="100" alt="Taxes" /></a>
<p>Seen in the <em><a href="http://www.sacbee.com/2010/03/13/2604016/irs-suits-pay-visit-to-car-wash.html">Sacramento Bee</a></em>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Arriving at Harv&#8217;s Metro Car Wash in midtown Wednesday afternoon were two dark-suited IRS agents demanding payment of delinquent taxes. &quot;They were deadly serious, very aggressive, very condescending,&quot; says Harv&#8217;s owner, Aaron Zeff.</p>
<p>The really odd part of this: The letter that was hand-delivered to Zeff&#8217;s on-site manager showed the amount of money owed to the feds was &#8230; 4 cents.</p>
<p>Inexplicably, penalties and taxes accruing on the debt – stemming from the 2006 tax year – were listed as $202.31, leaving Harv&#8217;s with an obligation of $202.35.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>While I don’t want tax deadbeats to get away with not paying their fair share…I wouldn’t call someone who owes $0.04 a deadbeat.&#160; Surely the IRS spent more than $0.04 in the accounting to determine that the penalties and interest totaled $202.31, much less sending IRS agents out to dun the businessman in person.</p>
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		<title>NYT Editorial on Health Care Reform</title>
		<link>http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/08/nyt-editorial-on-health-care-reform</link>
		<comments>http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/08/nyt-editorial-on-health-care-reform#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Mar 2010 17:14:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>MikeTheActuary</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Health]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Health Care Reform]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/08/nyt-editorial-on-health-care-reform</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
<p>One of my ongoing complaints in the public debate on health reform has been the over-emphasis on expanding coverage, without regard for addressing the underlying issues of cost.</p>
<p>Over the weekend, the New York Times ran an editorial entitled, “If Reform Fails…”.&#160; As can be expected, given the political leanings of the NYT’s op-ed staff, it [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a href="http://www.triskele.com/category/actuarial-musings/health" title="Health"><img src="http://www.triskele.com/wp-content/images/icons/topic_health.gif" style="float:right;" width="100" height="100" alt="Health" /></a>
<p>One of my ongoing complaints in the public debate on health reform has been the over-emphasis on expanding coverage, without regard for addressing the underlying issues of cost.</p>
<p>Over the weekend, the <em>New York Times</em> ran an editorial entitled, “<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/07/opinion/07sun1.html?pagewanted=all">If Reform Fails…</a>”.&#160; As can be expected, given the political leanings of the NYT’s op-ed staff, it was pro reform.&#160; However, they did, at least, include this section:</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>I’M JUST WORRIED ABOUT COSTS:</strong> You should be. The cost of medical care is rising far faster than wages or inflation. And despite all of the talk about reform “bending the curve,” no one is yet sure how to do that.</p>
<p>Many reforms that people instinctively believe should cut costs — computerization of medical records, paying doctors for quality not quantity of services, and prevention programs to promote healthy living and head off costly illnesses — cannot yet be shown to lower costs.</p>
<p>Pending reform legislation, specifically the Senate bill, would launch an array of pilot projects to test reforms in delivering and paying for care. It would also create a special board to accelerate the adoption of anything that seemed to work. That seems a reasonable way to go and a lot better than standing by as costs continue to spiral out of control. The Republicans’ proposals — including their call to cap malpractice awards — would make only a small dent in the problem.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>That’s a fair point.&#160; Admittedly, I’m skeptical about the efficacy of the pilot projects – it’s very tempting to suspect that they were included in the bill to pay lip-service to the concerns of cost – but at least this editorial constitutes some public discussion of the problem of underlying cost from the pro-reform camp.</p>
<p>I think the column also has a point in that the Republican call to cap malpractice awards would only make a small dent in the problem.</p>
<p>I still wish that health reform efforts focused on the structural inefficiencies of the American health care system, as well as tackling the underlying causes of medical cost inflation.&#160; I think that the issue of uninsurance / lack of access would be significantly improved if those core problems were addressed.&#160; However, I’ve come to accept that those problems are too big / too complicated for politicians to tackle until they are absolutely forced to.</p>
<p>I suppose that the benefit of the Dem’s&#160; reform proposal is that if it passes, and if it remains intact, it will hasten the day when Americans will be forced to do that tackling. </p>
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		<title>Backscatter Scanners Being Installed in US Airports</title>
		<link>http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/06/backscatter-scanners-being-installed-in-us-airports</link>
		<comments>http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/06/backscatter-scanners-being-installed-in-us-airports#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Mar 2010 02:28:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>MikeTheActuary</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Airlines / Aviation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Backscatter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TSA]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/06/backscatter-scanners-being-installed-in-us-airports</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
<p>In case you’ve been looking forward to your virtual strip searches, the TSA has announced where you can go to indulge in a bit of exhibitionism in the name of security:</p>
<p>AIT units are currently being set up at Boston Logan International airport, and within a week they’ll be at Chicago O’Hare International airport. You should [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a href="http://www.triskele.com/category/actuarial-musings/travel-transportation/airlines-aviation" title="Airlines / Aviation"><img src="http://www.triskele.com/wp-content/images/icons/topic_airlines-aviation.gif" style="float:right;" width="100" height="100" alt="Airlines / Aviation" /></a>
<p>In case you’ve been looking forward to your virtual strip searches, the TSA <a href="http://www.tsa.gov/blog/2010/03/backscatter-advanced-imaging-technology.html">has announced</a> where you can go to indulge in a bit of exhibitionism in the name of security:</p>
<blockquote><p>AIT units are currently being set up at Boston Logan International airport, and within a week they’ll be at Chicago O’Hare International airport. You should see the rest of the airports on this list in action by this summer:      <br />· Boston Logan International (BOS)       <br />· Charlotte Douglas International (CLT)       <br />· Chicago O’Hare International (ORD)       <br />· Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International (CVG)       <br />· Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International (FLL)       <br />· Kansas City International (MCI)       <br />· Los Angeles International (LAX)       <br />· Mineta San José International (SJC)       <br />· Oakland International (OAK)       <br />· Port Columbus International (CMH)       <br />· San Diego International (SAN)</p>
</blockquote>
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		<title>A Hypothesis on the Health Impasse Between House and Senate Dems</title>
		<link>http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/06/a-hypothesis-on-the-health-impasse-between-house-and-senate-dems</link>
		<comments>http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/06/a-hypothesis-on-the-health-impasse-between-house-and-senate-dems#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Mar 2010 02:16:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>MikeTheActuary</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Congress]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Democrats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Health]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Health Care Reform]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/06/a-hypothesis-on-the-health-impasse-between-house-and-senate-dems</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
<p>Via tweets from @eddie_smith and @PrezMike2010 (SOA President Mike McLaughlin), I came across a blog post at Newsweek highlighting a difference between the House and Senate health reform bills which could be contributing to the unwillingness of House Dems to just vote for the Senate bill.&#160; It’s a factor which hasn’t received much attention in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a href="http://www.triskele.com/category/actuarial-musings/politics/democrats" title="Democrats"><img src="http://www.triskele.com/wp-content/images/icons/topic_democrats.gif" style="float:right;" width="100" height="100" alt="Democrats" /></a>
<p>Via tweets from <a href="http://twitter.com/eddie_smith/status/10087537790">@eddie_smith</a> and <a href="http://twitter.com/PrezMike2010/status/10065683239">@PrezMike2010</a> (SOA President Mike McLaughlin), I came across a <a href="http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/thegaggle/archive/2010/03/03/what-exactly-is-holding-up-health-care-reform-mit-s-gruber-s-answer-actuarial-value.aspx">blog post</a> at Newsweek highlighting a difference between the House and Senate health reform bills which could be contributing to the unwillingness of House Dems to just vote for the Senate bill.&#160; It’s a factor which hasn’t received much attention in the press….and it’s summarized in this chart:</p>
<p align="center"><a href="http://www.triskele.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/housevssenate.jpg" rel="lightbox[4806]"><img style="border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px" title="housevssenate" border="0" alt="housevssenate" src="http://www.triskele.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/housevssenate_thumb.jpg" width="500" height="218" /></a> </p>
<p>The reform bill is all about cost-shifting to expand coverage.&#160; And if there isn’t consensus within the party in power as to how to shift those costs…</p>
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		<title>NFIP Reauthorized (for a few weeks anyway)</title>
		<link>http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/03/nfip-reauthorized-for-a-few-weeks-anyway</link>
		<comments>http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/03/nfip-reauthorized-for-a-few-weeks-anyway#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Mar 2010 17:29:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>MikeTheActuary</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Insurance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Flood Insurance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NFIP]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/03/nfip-reauthorized-for-a-few-weeks-anyway</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
<p>Seen at Business Insurance:</p>
<p>President Barack Obama has signed into law a measure that extends the National Flood Insurance Program through March 28.</p>
<p>The NFIP extension is part of measure that temporarily extends a variety of federal programs, a bill that stalled in the Senate when Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., objected to the package’s $10 billion price. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a href="http://www.triskele.com/category/actuarial-musings/insurance" title="Insurance"><img src="http://www.triskele.com/wp-content/images/icons/topic_insurance.gif" style="float:right;" width="100" height="100" alt="Insurance" /></a>
<p>Seen at <em><a href="http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20100303/NEWS/100309975">Business Insurance</a></em>:</p>
<blockquote><p>President Barack Obama has signed into law a measure that extends the National Flood Insurance Program through March 28.</p>
<p>The NFIP extension is part of measure that temporarily extends a variety of federal programs, a bill that stalled in the Senate when Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., objected to the package’s $10 billion price. The delay meant that the NFIP expired on Sunday.</p>
</blockquote>
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		<title>National Flood Insurance Program in Limbo</title>
		<link>http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/01/national-flood-insurance-program-in-limbo</link>
		<comments>http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/01/national-flood-insurance-program-in-limbo#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Mar 2010 16:59:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>MikeTheActuary</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Congress]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Insurance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Flood Insurance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NFIP]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/01/national-flood-insurance-program-in-limbo</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
<p>I feel disappointed in myself for not having caught this news earlier, but it seems that one casualty of the Senate&#8217;s backlog may be flood insurance.</p>
<p>According to Insurance Journal, the NFIP is not accepting new business since an omnibus bill which includes yet another temporary reauthorization is stuck in queue with the Senate. </p>
<p>The IJ [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a href="http://www.triskele.com/category/actuarial-musings/politics/congress" title="Congress"><img src="http://www.triskele.com/wp-content/images/icons/topic_congress.gif" style="float:right;" width="100" height="100" alt="Congress" /></a>
<p>I feel disappointed in myself for not having caught this news earlier, but it seems that one casualty of the Senate&#8217;s backlog may be flood insurance.</p>
<p>According to Insurance Journal, the NFIP is not accepting new business since an omnibus bill which includes yet another temporary reauthorization is stuck in queue with the Senate. </p>
<p>The IJ article can be found here:  http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2010/03/01/107746.htm</p>
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		<title>Video: Why is Health Insurance So Expensive</title>
		<link>http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/01/video-why-is-health-insurance-so-expensive</link>
		<comments>http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/01/video-why-is-health-insurance-so-expensive#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Mar 2010 10:38:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>MikeTheActuary</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Health]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Insurance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Health Insurance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.triskele.com/2010/03/01/video-why-is-health-insurance-so-expensive</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
<p>I noticed over on the Actuarial Outpost that TheAnonymousActuary has posted to YouTube a 10 minute tutorial on why health insurance is so expensive.</p>
<p> 
<p>Note that the video focuses on the current components of loss cost, a much narrower focus than my ramblings about the cost of health care in general…but I do have a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a href="http://www.triskele.com/category/actuarial-musings/insurance" title="Insurance"><img src="http://www.triskele.com/wp-content/images/icons/topic_insurance.gif" style="float:right;" width="100" height="100" alt="Insurance" /></a>
<p>I noticed over on the <a href="http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showthread.php?t=187051">Actuarial Outpost</a> that TheAnonymousActuary has posted to YouTube a 10 minute tutorial on why health insurance is so expensive.</p>
<p> <center><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/iyjfafL8WWA&amp;hl=en_US&amp;fs=1&amp;"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/iyjfafL8WWA&amp;hl=en_US&amp;fs=1&amp;" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object></center>
<p>Note that the video focuses on the current components of loss cost, a much narrower focus than my ramblings about the cost of health care in general…but I do have a problem with being too unfocused sometimes.</p>
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		<title>Courant Has Pro-Toll Editorial</title>
		<link>http://www.triskele.com/2010/02/28/courant-has-pro-toll-editorial</link>
		<comments>http://www.triskele.com/2010/02/28/courant-has-pro-toll-editorial#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Mar 2010 03:47:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>MikeTheActuary</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News From Connecticut]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toll Roads]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.triskele.com/2010/02/28/courant-has-pro-toll-editorial</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
<p>Apparently someone at the Courant would like to see the state’s freeways re-tolled.&#160; This editorial appeared over the weekend:</p>
<p>State Rep. Tony Guerrera, D- Rocky Hill, is the latest among Connecticut lawmakers to propose restoring tolls to finance the repair and maintenance of the state&#8217;s aging highway infrastructure.</p>
<p>We agree with Mr. Guerrera that a new revenue [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a href="http://www.triskele.com/category/actuarial-musings/news-from-connecticut" title="News From Connecticut"><img src="http://www.triskele.com/wp-content/images/icons/topic_news-from-connecticut.gif" style="float:right;" width="100" height="100" alt="News From Connecticut" /></a>
<p>Apparently someone at the <em>Courant</em> would like to see the state’s freeways re-tolled.&#160; <a href="http://www.courant.com/news/opinion/editorials/hc-bring-back-highway-tolls.artfeb28,0,6359587.story">This editorial</a> appeared over the weekend:</p>
<blockquote><p>State Rep. Tony Guerrera, D- Rocky Hill, is the latest among Connecticut lawmakers to propose restoring tolls to finance the repair and maintenance of the state&#8217;s aging highway infrastructure.</p>
<p>We agree with Mr. Guerrera that a new revenue stream to help solve Connecticut&#8217;s woeful transportation problems is desperately needed.</p>
<p>We also agree with him that more money is needed to help pay for transit projects. High-speed rail, light rail, more commuter train routes, busways and the like would decrease the bedlam of congestion on highways, cut harmful emissions and give a jolt to the state&#8217;s struggling economy.</p>
<p>But tolling won&#8217;t be easy.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The editorial goes on to mention that one of the biggest challenges to getting tolls on state freeways is that doing so would cause the state to forego federal highway transportation funds, unless Connecticut landed the one slot remaining in a pilot project for interstate tolling.&#160; Missouri and Virginia have been approved for two of the three spots, and Pennsylvania has been fumbling its position as leading candidate for slot number three for a few years.</p>
<p>I would mention, however, that the best way to improve the chances for getting that third exemption would be to make a few changes to the proposal.&#160; Specifically:</p>
<ul>
<li>The feds will have an issue with having toll barriers only at the state lines.&#160; Tolls that are less blatantly geared towards interstate travelers, either with additional tolling locations, or by tolling each and every entrance and exit, will be easier idea to sell to the feds (not to mention reducing the incentive for drivers to find shunpike alternatives to just a few individual barriers).     <br />&#160; </li>
<li>The proposal provides for the diversion of some funding (specifically, a share of a reduced gas tax) to developing mass transit.&#160; That is an admirable goal, but given the criticism Pennsylvania has faced in it’s application (that past and future highway money actually be spent on highways), perhaps that option shouldn’t be played up quite so much.     <br />&#160;&#160; </li>
<li>Advocates could always highlight just how minimal a share of the transportation stimulus pork Connecticut has received.</li>
</ul>
<p>I’ll admit that I don’t want to see my commuting costs rise any further.&#160; However, something has to be done at the state and federal level to do a better job of getting revenue and spending in balance, and given the sensitivities of raising revenues, creative funding sources need to be found.&#160; Tolling the freeways is a bit creative, and it has the added advantage of more directly collecting revenues from those who will most directly benefit from the expenditure of those funds.</p>
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