Weather

I know that several folks (myself included) were breathing a sigh of relief and discounting Fay as just a Tropical Storm.

Maybe we get to upgrade her to "just a cat 1 with a wacky path".  The 11pm update has her actually strengthening over the peninsula, and a forecasted re-landfall as a Cat 1 hurricane near St. Augustine.

I’ve seen some really wacky storm paths simulated in the cat models…and well maybe they aren’t as truly bizarre as I once thought they were.

Usually you see storms impacting just part of Florida…but sheesh, it looks like Fay has something against the state.

Mercifully she isn’t forecast to go above Cat 1.  If a Cat 3 or more storm were dancing this way across the state, could you imagine the assessments needed to cover the damages on state-subsidized wind cover?

Seen in the Orlando Sentinel:

Gov. Charlie Crist and the Florida Cabinet had told the state’s risk managers to find potential buyers for as much as $11 billion in bonds that would be needed to pay claims if the state is racked by a Katrina-sized hurricane.  But with financial markets in tatters, state money managers say they’ve struck out.

"The terms that we are getting are just outrageously expensive," said Jack Nicholson, director of the state’s hurricane catastrophe fund.

Translation: The state now will hope for the best.

[If a massive storm were to strike Tampa or Miami] Florida would have to sell bonds to help insurers pay claims. But with about $8 billion in cash and the expectation the state could sell a maximum of $10 billion in bonds, officials fear a possible $11 billion shortfall.

Mother Nature has responded via the National Hurricane Center thusly:

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS A WEAK SURFACE LOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

I know.  It’s not that impressive a tropical outlook…but it’s somewhat ironic that the first hiccup in the Atlantic in about a month would come just as Florida decides to cross its fingers again this year.

Hot off the Colorado State presses:

And, for whatever it’s worth, over at the Actuarial Outpost, a hurricane season prediction contest is underway.

It’s a good time of the year to be in the random number generation business.   From Business Insurance:

Atlantic hurricane activity will be 20% above average this year, Tropical Storm Risk predicted Monday.

The London-based forecasting consortium in April had predicted a season 35% above the 1950-2007 norm. But in a statement announcing Monday’s prediction, TSR said: "The lowering of the forecast is due to the unexpected rapid waning of La Niña conditions now occurring in the tropical Pacific. However, uncertainties remain, and La Niña and other key climate factors will be closely monitored."

On the calendar, Atlantic storm season doesn’t start until tomorrow.   However, it looks like Arthur just couldn’t wait.

It is, however, a little unusual for a storm to get it’s first name while inland, I think.

Isn’t that Marvin Poppins, Mary’s klutzy brother?

Actually, it’s from a Daily Mail story on how potent winter storm Jonathan was when it struck Britain this past weekend.

For those in the Southeast who might be anxious about the world coming to an end thanks to the drought, perhaps a story in Sunday’s Sydney morning Herald might offer some hope:

As at 9am yesterday, Sydney had received a whopping 172.4 millimetres since the start of February, compared with 4.4 millimetres for the same period last year.[...]

La Niña, the opposite of the drought-causing El Niño, causes extensive cooling of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. On the east coast, that equates to wetter weather.

Sydney’s dams are at 64 per cent of capacity, up 3 per cent in just a week. The water supply was at an all-time low at just 33.9 per cent in February last year. Sydney’s main water supply, Warragamba Dam, is 25 per cent fuller than it was at this time last year, at almost 58 per cent.[...]

Releasing the latest drought figures yesterday, Mr Iemma said large areas of western NSW had moved out of drought for the first time in seven years.

About four and a half years ago, Memphis was knocked off the grid for a few days in the wake of Hurricane Elvis, and barely anyone in the mainstream media noticed.

However, having a tornado cause polling places to close early—that merits rapid media attention.

Authorities confirmed a tornado touchdown near Arlington, said Jeremy Heidt, spokesman for the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency.

The Hickory Ridge Mall sustained “severe damage,” including a collapsed roof and walls, according to Staples, who said firefighters were still evacuating the building as of 6:40 p.m.

Added MFD division chief Daryl Payton: “We had to evacuate a large number of civilians, but fortunately there were some injuries but no medical transports. It was just a major time trying to evacuate people because people were afraid to leave the building.”

Thankfully, I haven’t seen wingnuts speculating on the Clinton campaign conjuring the tornadic weather to drive down Obama’s expected stronger support in the inner city portions of Memphis.

Given how dry things have been in north Georgia, it’s probably no shocker that swimming pools are expected to be closed there this year.  Unfortunately, someone’s noticed a problem with that.  From the AJC:

A drought-induced ban on opening swimming pools in North Georgia this year could create an unintended public health hazard in your neighbor’s back yard, county health officials say.

The problem: a ban might prompt people to leave their pools unattended, turning them into havens for bacteria, parasites and West Nile Virus-carrying mosquitoes.[...]

Pool owners, meanwhile, could be in a tough spot if the restrictions remain in place. Some could decide to drain their pools. But leaving them exposed to groundwater, weather and debris could damage them, experts said. Besides, rainwater could collect in empty pools, turning them back into mosquito hangouts.

Others could keep water in their pools and treat them with a substance to kill off mosquito larvae. They could also stretch porous covers over them to keep the bugs out. But that could be time-consuming and costly.

Of course, wouldn’t the problem of rainwater collecting in a pool drained for a drought be somewhat welcome?

So, does anyone else remember the Corps of Engineers expressing concern about many levees countrywide?

Seen at MSNBC:

An irrigation canal’s earthen levee ruptured after heavy rains early Saturday, flooding hundreds of homes and forcing the rescue of dozens of people in helicopters and boats across about a square mile of their high desert town 30 miles east of Reno. “We had a 50-foot wall of water about 2 feet high going down Farm District Road,” said Lyon County Fire Chief Scott Huntley, one of the first on the scene after a section of the Truckee Canal up to 150 feet long broke just after 4 a.m.

“In some places folks had to deal with 8 feet of water,” he said. “Firefighters were in chest-deep water making rescues.”