Election Predictions

Election Predictions

6 November 2006 · No Comments

I’ve started to see some blogs make predictions about the outcome of tomorrow’s election. Take, for example, this bit of prognostication at Donklephant:

Senate (D): 49, +5
Senate (R): 49, -6
Senate (I): 2, +1

House (D): 227, +25
House (R): 208, -24
House (I): 0, -1

Governors (D): 29, +7
Governors (R): 21, -7

I could go along with those results. I will, however, pursue a few different predictions:

  • I predict that the results of tomorrow’s election won’t be completely known for at least three weeks, due to legal challenges and/or recounts in at least one race.
     
  • Assuming the Dems do capture at least one house of Congress, I predict a flurry of legislation in the lame duck session, since the GOP knows they will be without monopoly power for two years.
     
  • Assuming the networks are better about stopping exit poll leaks this year, I predict that some on the left will see a conspiracy in worse-than-expected results, stifling of exit polling data, and rumors of election manipulation
     
  • Regardless of whether the Dems win no, one, or both houses, the next two years are going to be both entertaining and ugly, politically.

Tags: Elections