On Hillary’s New (Delegate) Math

In the wake of the vigor the Clinton political machine has been putting into Hillary’s campaign since Indiana, I’ve been wondering “why”?    I’ve seen various pundits talking about different scenarios in which Hillary could stage a come-from-behind coup…but I haven’t yet seen a nice, clean description of how it might occur.

So, borrowing data from RealClearPolitics, RedState (which I might frequently disagree with, but their projections on the remaining primaries pass the sniff test), and Wikipedia, I’ve put together the following table:

With the exception of the final 3 rows, the table is in terms of Obama’s lead.  

As of today, it looks like Obama is ahead by 167 delegates or 703,832 votes (with some assumptions about caucus states) under DNC rules.   If Hillary’s push to seat Florida and Michigan as-is succeeded, Obama’s delegate lead would be cut to 52, and Hillary would be slightly ahead on a popular vote basis.

Of course, Obama wasn’t on the ballot in Michigan, but “Uncommitted” received a sizeable vote.   If “Uncommitted” were assigned to Obama….well you can see the numbers.

There are six states remaining, and it looks like Hillary can close the gap somewhat, netting 16-ish delegates, or maybe a bit under 200,000 popular votes, if current polling holds.

Barring a dramatic development, it seems extremely improbable for Hillary to catch Obama on the basis of pledged delegates, but she can claim a moral victory of winning the popular vote, if you ignore those pesky DNC rules, and those uncommitted Michiganders.

But there are still 258 superdelegates and Edwards delegates to woo (326 if FL and MI were included).

To win under DNC rules, Hillary needs to win 80% of the remaining unpledged Super/Edwards delegates — an extremely improbable feat.

However, looking at the numbers above, Hillary’s interest in Florida and Michigan is very easy to understand.  If they were included, she’d only need to win 56% or 64% of the remaining super/Edwards delegates, again depending on what happens with the unaffiliated Michigan delegates.   That sort of margin doesn’t seem impossible.

Looking at those numbers….I can see why Hillary’s hanging in the campaign.   She actually does have a shot, if she can get the DNC to cave.    Thus, if her funding holds out, she really has no reason to drop out until a decision is made about FL and MI…or unless several more superdelegates pledge for Obama.

Even though I like Obama more than I like Hillary, I can appreciate the prowess of the Clinton political machine.  It probably is premature for Hillary to throw in the towel…unless she amazingly decided to start playing by the rules.

Meanwhile, over at electoral-vote.com, the latest projections appear to be:

• McCain over Obama, 290-237 (with Indiana tied)
• Clinton over McCain, 280-241 (with Michigan tied)

That, as much as I hate to admit it, only adds a bit more fuel to Hillary’s argument.

Looks like we still have a few interesting weeks ahead of us.