I think someone forgot to sensitivity-test a few of the assumptions made when pricing out Massachusetts attempt at imposing universal health care:
The subsidized insurance program at the heart of the state’s healthcare initiative is expected to roughly double in size and expense over the next three years - an unexpected level of growth that could cost state taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars or force the state to scale back its ambitions.
State projections obtained by the Globe show the program reaching 342,000 people and $1.35 billion in annual expenses by June 2011. Those figures would far outstrip the original plans for the Commonwealth Care program, largely because state officials underestimated the number of uninsured residents.
I don’t know about you, but assessing what happens if things don’t go as planned is a regular part of my analysis when putting together project plans.