Seen at Rasmussen:
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that roughly 15% of voters would currently vote for [either Ron Paul or Michael Bloomberg] in general election match-ups.
When the two candidates are mentioned as independent options in match-ups between Mitt Romney and the two Democratic frontrunners, Paul and Bloomberg attract roughly the same level of support. When John McCain is mentioned as the Republican candidate in a match-up with Barack Obama, Ron Paul earns 11% of the vote while Bloomberg attracts 5%.
At this time, the net impact of such third party efforts appears to benefit the Democrats.
Of course, the question still remains—will Dr. Paul launch a third-party or independent bid, and will Bloomberg get in the race.
I don’t know what the answer to the first question is. Ron Paul’s core supporters definitely want him to…however, I haven’t gotten a strong impression of Dr. Paul being quite as enthusiastic about that prospect.
Personally, while I’d like part of the economic responsibility / individual liberty message to get more media play (thus the reason I’ll be holding my nose and voting for Ron Paul in Connecticut’s primary), I sill really wish that message were carried by a more credible messenger….especially when that messenger will need to poll 15% or better to get into the Presidential debates this fall.
As to the second question—presumably we’ll have a better feel for the odds of Bloomberg entering the race after next week. If McCain can break ahead of Romney on Super Tuesday…I’ve got to believe Bloomberg will stay out, due to the likelihood of fracturing the moderate/centrist vote. If Romney turns it around, or if the picture remains clouded…who knows?
One additional thought—personally I doubt that Paul can do much better than low, maybe mid, double digits in national polls, due to his quirks and certain of his definitely non-mainstream views. However, I wonder how much of Bloomberg’s low-polling is simply the result of being unknown.
A bit of advertising should, presumably, at least buy Bloomberg a podium at the Presidential Debates. After all, look at how many votes Romney’s millions have been able to buy. 