Well, my wished-for moratorium on polling data releases isn’t in effect, so in case you’re wondering (as I was) what the polls show for the next states, here’s what I see in Real Clear Politics averages:
GOP Michigan (primary date 15 January, polling data 30 November through 19 December):
- Romney: 19.8%
- Huckabee: 18.8%
- McCain: 13.0%
- Giuliani: 12.5%
- Thompson: 6.5%
- Paul: 4.3%
Dems Michigan (15 January, delegates stripped, candidates boycotting, Obama not even on ballot)
GOP Nevada (19 January, polling data 16 November through 6 December):
- Giuliani: 23.7%
- Romney: 23.7%
- Huckabee: 15.3%
- Thompson: 9.7%
- McCain: 7.3%
- Paul: 5.0%
Dems Nevada (19 January, polling data 16 November through 6 December):
- Clinton: 41.3%
- Obama: 21.3%
- Edwards: 11.7%
- Richardson: 5.7%
GOP South Carolina (19 January, polling data 4 January through 7 January):
- Huckabee: 32.3%
- McCain: 19.7%
- Romney: 16.0%
- Thompson: 9.0%
- Giuliani: 9.0%
- Paul: 5.0%
Dems South Carolina (26 January, polling data 4 January through 7 January):
- Obama: 44.0%
- Clinton: 31.0%
- Edwards: 15.0%
GOP Florida (29 January, polling data 12 December through 7 January):
- Giuliani: 26.5%
- Huckabee: 21.3%
- Romney: 16.5%
- McCain: 14.3%
- Thompson: 8.5%
- Paul: 3.7%
Dems Florida (29 January, polling data 12 December through 7 January; delegates stripped, candidates boycotting):
- Clinton: 46.0%
- Obama: 26.3%
- Edwards 13.3%
Of course, we saw last night just how meaningful polling data can be.
Seriously, I’m disappointed by how stale some of those numbers are. If you make some guesses of how Iowa and New Hampshire might influence some of the older results… well, January is shaping up to be potentially mighty interesting.