So, tomorrow is the Iowa caucus, and as might be expected, folks are making their final predictions.
The most interesting of these, I think, are Robert Novak’s, who’s expecting:
- On the GOP side: Romney first, Huckabee second, Thompson third, McCain fourth, and Ron Paul fifth
- …however there’s potential for quite a bit of volatility among the number 3, 4, and 5 positions. (”Ron Paul could make a splash, as well. He’s in fifth place in most polls, but his supporters are unmatched in enthusiasm and dedication. A third-place finish for Paul is not out of the question.”)
- Among the Dems: Obama first, Edwards second, Clinton third, and Richardson fourth-but-irrelevant.
- Expect Obama and Edwards to benefit the most from Iowa’s 15% viability rule, since Clinton is rarely anyone’s second choice. (You apparently love Hillary or hate her. Edwards appears to be the most popular choice among supporters for the also-rans.)
- Novak also mentions the possibility that the rest of the Democratic field could drop out, perhaps even before New Hampshire next week.
(Personally, I’d think that Richardson, Dodd, and Biden would hold on in the off chance of a miracle in New Hampshire, but it’s likely that they’ll admit non-viability very soon now. Kucinich and Gravel I’d think would hang on, out of nuttiness and orneriness respectively.)