It’s still eleven months and change from the November 2008 elections, and already pundits are starting to make their forecasts for the outcome on Capitol Hill. Seen in CQ Weekly:
That’s because every traditional indicator of election forecasting — from public opinion polls and issue resonance to candidate recruitment and the “over/under” balance of seats in play — suggests that congressional Democrats have just as much going for them in 2008 as they had in 2006, if not more. They now have the power of incumbency to give them added advantages in raising money, attracting top-tier candidates, controlling the legislative agenda and capturing the political zeitgeist.
All this leads Democrats to profess clear confidence that they’ll retain majority control next fall. And not only that, but they may now harbor realistic visions of emerging with 55 to 58 seats in the Senate (pushing them within arm-twisting distance of the 60 votes needed to bust a filibuster) as well more than 240 seats in the House, a cushion that neither party has enjoyed since the end of the last Democratic era in the House, in 1994.[...]
The article cites how more R’s than D’s are announcing retirements, opening the door to competition in what would otherwise have been considered safe seats for incumbents. And, one other entertaining quote:
But the biggest factor working in the Democrats’ favor continues to be that they are not the Republicans.
This is the point in the post where I would remark about the Dems’ remarkable ability to pull defeat from the jaws of victory. However, with GOP whip-masters like Rove and Delay out of the picture, and with internal squabbling over direction of the party… I’d think both parties are rather prone to self-destruction.