Initial Polls on California Electoral Vote Initiative

A few days ago I mentioned an initiative effectively sponsored by the GOP to revise California’s method of allocating electoral votes to a by-Congressional District basis, rather than the winner-take-all standard.

There’s already a poll out on how the initiative could fare, according to the San Francisco Chronicle:

The proponents of the California ballot measure, largely Republicans, say such a change would make presidential elections more fair by more accurately reflecting the results of the popular vote. However, Democrats have railed against the proposal by charging that the measure is a Republican-driven effort to keep Democrats from capturing the White House.[...]

The Field Poll found that 47 percent of registered voters back a change to California’s system for electoral votes, with 35 percent opposed. Republicans generally support the change more than Democrats.

When pollsters explained the political implication that Democratic presidential candidates might lose some electoral votes under a proportional system, the numbers changed: 49 percent supported the change and 42 percent opposed it. Opposition from Democrats and independent voters rose when the issue was put this way.

Still, the survey showed there is “initial support for the idea to change the California’s system,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll.

“I think voters on both sides tend to see the current winner-take-all to be a little bit unfair,” he said. “Even the Democrats in the first question (before political ramifications were explained) were nearly evenly divided.”

Already, the California GOP is executing a fair amount of strategery to boost the odds of success of the initiative, including aiming to get it onto the ballot for what is shaping up to be a minor election. And it is an idea that has a certain amount of appeal.

It’s a shame that the GOP seems to be pursuing the concept only in blue state with a lot of electoral votes.