Politico has an interesting article discussing the impact Bloomberg could have if he should decide to make an independent/third party run for the White House:
[John Zogby] said Bloomberg’s most likely supporters are “moderate Republicans … and disaffected conservatives who cannot vote Democrat,” though he adds: “You may also get moderate liberals who for some reason or another don’t like Hillary or for some reason are not ready for Obama,”[...]
Larry Sabato, the director of the Center of Politics at the University of Virginia, argues that Bloomberg’s background means the New York mayor would draw “substantially more” support from Democrats than from Republicans.
“His highest percentages will come in the Northeast and maybe West Coast states,” Sabato wrote in an e-mail. “Gee, they are all Blue States!
That creates an interesting puzzle to ponder. In the U.S., electoral votes matter when it comes to electing a President, not popular vote totals.
I can believe that Bloomberg would be more harmful to a GOP contender than to a Democrat in total. However, if his support is geographically concentrated, then enough moderate support in blue or purple states could create a rather interesting situation with the electoral vote tally.
Mmmm…chaos chock-filled with polling stats. A very tasty election to watch indeed.
