It’s time for round two of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecasts. Doctors Klotzbach & Gray have posted their update:
- Named Storms: 17 (prior forecast 14; average is 9.6)
- Named Storm Days: 85 (prior forecast 70; average is 49.1)
- Hurricanes: 9 (prior forecast 7; average is 5.9)
- Intense Hurricanes: 5 (prior forecast 3; average is 2.3)
As to why they’re upping their predictions, the forecast authors write:
Above-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern subtropical Atlantic are associated with a weaker-than-normal Azores high and reduced trade wind strength during the boreal spring (Knaff 1997). These above-average SSTs in February-March are strongly correlated with weaker trade winds, lower-than-normal sea level pressures and above-average SSTs in the tropical Atlantic during the following August-October period. All three of these August-October features are commonly associated with active Atlantic basin hurricane seasons, through reductions in vertical wind shear, increased vertical instability and increased surface latent and sensible heat fluxes, respectively.
In addition, they cite conditions off the Pacific coast of South America which suggest that there probably won’t be an El Niño this year to suppress storm formation.