Over at the Weather Underground, Jeff Masters has noticed that funding for hurricane research has been essentially completely cut for the upcoming storm season. He comments:
With zero money allocated to fund one of the most important types of hurricane research, one has to wonder–what are NOAA and Congress thinking? Advancements in hurricane science due to the research flights performed by the P-3s are a huge reason hurricane track forecasts have improved 43% in the past 15 years. For example, the now routine flights by the NOAA high-altitude jet to sample the large-scale environment around a hurricane improves tracks forecasts by perhaps 20% on its own. This advancement grew out of a multi-year research project conducted by the P-3s in the 1980s and 1990s. Continued hurricane research by aircraft is essential if we are to continue improving track forecasts, and do a better job at forecasting intensity–which has only improved 17% in the past 15 years.
Perhaps the folks holding the federal purse strings have decided that variability and overbroad evacuations are too much fun to not perpetuate?