This reality-check (or exercise in random number generation, depending on your viewpoint) is brought to you by RMS (via Insurance Journal):
Hurricane loss modeler Risk Management Solutions (RMS) has reaffirmed its medium-term five-year view of landfalling hurricane risk for the period of 2007-2011. The company is projecting higher modeled annualized insurance losses by 40 percent on average across the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Southeast, and by 25-30 percent in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal regions relative to those derived using long-term 1900-2006 historical average hurricane frequencies.
We were lucky this year, in terms of Atlantic storms. We’ll probably have a couple more lucky years among the next five.
The interesting thing to see is what the unlucky years will look like.