(Via Insurance Journal) A Baltimore Sun story reports on the results of revamped storm-surge modeling for Chesapeake Bay:
But as destructive as Isabel was, recent computer simulations by government scientists - the most extensive ever for the Chesapeake Bay - show that hurricane storm surges here could get much, much worse.
Under some conditions, they discovered, a Category 4 hurricane making landfall in the Carolinas could produce storm surges as high as 18 or 20 feet in Baltimore at high tide. That’s at least 10 feet - a full story - above Isabel’s high-water mark and enough to carry floodwaters much farther inland.[...]
The projections show that 18-foot storm surges are also possible all along Baltimore County’s shoreline. Parts of Harford and Anne Arundel counties, and the upper tidal reaches of the South, Severn, Patuxent, Potomac and Anacostia rivers are just as vulnerable.
While I wasn’t in Baltimore for Isabelle, watching the Inner Harbor fill to overflowing during a tropical storm in the mid-90’s was impressive. The idea of an 18 foot storm surge….wow.
(Point of reference — the storm surge for Katrina for parts of the Mississippi Gulf coast was estimated at around 30 feet.)