The Klotzbach/Gray forecast for the 2006 hurricane season has been released by the good folks at Colorado State:
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
6 December 2005
Forecast for 2006
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)
17
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)
85
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)
9
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)
45
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3)
5
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0)
13
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)
195
It should be noted, however, that about 25% of the time, the Colorado State methodology fails to correctly predict whether a hurricane season will be above/below average, and that wide variances from their predictions…especially their December predictions are possible.
On the subject of global warming, the Klotzbach and Gray seem more inclined to explain 2005 as a product of natural, long-term weather cycles rather than blaming global warming. For example, in other tropical storm basins, 2005 has been a fairly normal year.